@article{rayner,
	title = {Creation, cannulation and survival of arteriovenous fistulae: data from the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study},
	volume = {63},
	issn = {0085-2538},
	shorttitle = {Creation, cannulation and survival of arteriovenous fistulae},
	url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12472799},
	doi = {10.1046/j.1523-1755.2003.00724.x},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Kidney International},
	author = {Rayner, Hugh C and Pisoni, Ronald L and Gillespie, Brenda W and Goodkin, David A and Akiba, Takashi and Akizawa, Tadao and Saito, Akira and Young, Eric W and Port, Friedrich K},
	month = jan,
	year = {2003},
	note = {{PMID:} 12472799},
	keywords = {Adolescent, Adult, Anastomosis, Surgical, Catheterization, Humans, {KIDNEY} {FAILURE}, {CHRONIC}, Outcome Assessment {(Health} Care), Physician's Practice Patterns, Prospective Studies, Random Allocation, {RENAL} {DIALYSIS}, Risk Factors, Time Factors, Treatment Outcome},
	pages = {323--330}
}

@misc{NIH,
author = {National Institutes of Health},
title = {Chronic Kidney Disease and Kidney Failure},
note ={Accessed January, 2012},
url = {http://report.nih.gov/NIHfactsheets/ViewFactSheet.aspx?csid=34&key=C#C}
}

@misc{NKUDIC,
author = {National Kidney and Urologic Diseases Information Clearinghouse (NKUDIC)},
title = {Kidney and Urologic Diseases Statistics for the United States},
note ={Accessed January, 2012},
url = {http://kidney.niddk.nih.gov/kudiseases/pubs/kustats}
}


@article{stoch,
	title = {Stochastic Orders in Preservation Properties by {Bernstein-Type} Operators},
	volume = {31},
	issn = {0001-8678},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1428119},
	abstract = {In this paper, we are concerned with preservation properties of first and second order by an operator L representable in terms of a stochastic process Z with non-decreasing right-continuous paths. We introduce the derived operator D of L and the derived process V of Z in order to characterize the preservation of absolute continuity and convexity. To obtain different characterizations of the preservation of convexity, we introduce two kinds of duality, the first referring to the process Z and the second to the derived process V. We illustrate the preceding results by considering some examples of interest both in probability and in approximation theory -- namely, mixtures, centred subordinators, Bernstein polynomials and beta operators. In most of them, we find bidensities to describe the duality between the derived processes. A unified approach based on stochastic orders is given.},
	number = {2},
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	author = {Adell, Jose A. and {Perez-Palomares}, Ana},
	month = jun,
	year = {1999},
	note = {{ArticleType:} research-article / Full publication date: Jun., 1999 / Copyright © 1999 Applied Probability Trust},
	pages = {492--509}
}
@article{guideline,
	title = {Clinical practice guidelines for vascular access},
	volume = {48},
	year = {2006},
	pages = { Supplement 1:S248--S273}
}
@article{rayner2003creation,
  title={Creation, cannulation and survival of arteriovenous fistulae: Data from the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study},
  author={Rayner, H.C. and Pisoni, R.L. and Gillespie, B.W. and Goodkin, D.A. and Akiba, T. and Akizawa, T. and Saito, A. and Young, E.W. and Port, F.K.},
  journal={Kidney international},
  volume={63},
  number={1},
  pages={323--330},
  year={2003},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group}
}

@inproceedings{o2010whether,
  title={Whether and when to refer patients for predialysis AV fistula creation: complex decision making in the face of uncertainty},
  author={O’Hare, A.M. and Allon, M. and Kaufman, J.S.},
  booktitle={Seminars in Dialysis},
  volume={23},
  number={5},
  pages={452--455},
  year={2010},
  organization={Wiley Online Library}
}
@book{shaked2007stochastic,
  title={Stochastic orders},
  author={Shaked, M. and Shanthikumar, J.G.},
  year={2007},
  publisher={Springer Verlag}
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@article{kawai1983optimal,
  title={Optimal ordering and replacement policy of a Markovian degradation system under complete observation: Part I.},
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@article{dohi1998optimal,
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@article{wang2009condition,
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  year={2009},
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}
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@book{muller,
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}
@article{gupta2003representing,
  title={Representing the mean residual life in terms of the failure rate},
  author={Gupta, R.C. and Bradley, D.M.},
  journal={Mathematical and computer modelling},
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  number={12-13},
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  year={2003},
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}


@article{perl_hemodialysis_2011,
	title = {Hemodialysis Vascular Access Modifies the Association between Dialysis Modality and Survival},
	volume = {22},
	issn = {1046-6673, 1533-3450},
	url = {http://jasn.asnjournals.org/content/22/6/1113},
	doi = {10.1681/ASN.2010111155},
	abstract = {Several comparisons of peritoneal dialysis ({PD)} and hemodialysis ({HD)} in incident patients with {ESRD} demonstrate superior survival in {PD-treated} patients within the first 1 to 2 years. These survival differences may be due to higher {HD-related} mortality as a result of high rates of incident central venous catheter ({CVC)} use or due to an initial survival advantage conferred by {PD.} We compared the survival of incident {PD} patients with those who initiated {HD} with a {CVC} ({HD-CVC)} or with a functional arteriovenous fistula or arteriovenous graft ({HD-AVF/AVG).} We used multivariable piece-wise exponential nonproportional and proportional hazards models to evaluate early (1 year) mortality as well as overall mortality during the period of observation using an intention-to-treat approach. We identified 40,526 incident adult dialysis patients from the Canadian Organ Replacement Register (2001 to 2008). Compared with the 7412 {PD} patients, 1-year mortality was similar for the 6663 {HD-AVF/AVG} patients but was 80\% higher for the 24,437 {HD-CVC} patients (adjusted {HR}, 1.8; 95\% confidence intervals [{CI]}, 1.6 to 1.9). During the entire period of follow-up, {HD-AVF/AVG} patients had a lower risk for death, and {HD-CVC} patients had a higher risk for death compared with patients on {PD.} In conclusion, the use of {CVCs} in incident {HD} patients largely accounts for the early survival benefit seen with {PD.}},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2013-05-31},
	journal = {Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
	author = {Perl, Jeffrey and Wald, Ron and {McFarlane}, Philip and Bargman, Joanne M. and Vonesh, Edward and Na, Yingbo and Jassal, S. Vanita and Moist, Louise},
	month = jun,
	year = {2011},
	note = {{PMID:} 21511830},
	pages = {1113--1121},
	file = {Full Text PDF:C:\Users\skandari.stu\AppData\Roaming\Mozilla\Firefox\Profiles\pyc42fte.default\zotero\storage\5FIT9DZE\Perl et al. - 2011 - Hemodialysis Vascular Access Modifies the Associat.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C:\Users\skandari.stu\AppData\Roaming\Mozilla\Firefox\Profiles\pyc42fte.default\zotero\storage\9ICS2CMH\1113.html:text/html}
}




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@misc{RefWorks:67,
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@article{RefWorks:8,
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	year={2010},
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	title={United States life tables, 2006},
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	volume={58},
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	note={id: 74; JID: 9814753; ppublish},
	abstract={OBJECTIVES:this report presents complete period life tables by age, race, and sex for the United States based on age-specific death rates in 2006. METHODS: Data used to prepare the 2006 life tables are 2006 final mortality statistics, July 1, 2006 population estimates based on the 2000 decennial census, and 2006 Medicare data for ages 66-100. The 2006 life tables were estimated using a recently revised methodology first applied to the final annual U.S. life tables series with the 2005 edition (1). For comparability, all life tables for the years 2000-2004 were reestimated using the revised methodology and were published in an appendix of the United States Life Tables, 2005 report (1). These revised tables replace all previously published life tables for years 2000-2004. RESULTs: In 2006, the overall expectation of life at birth was 77.7 years, representing an increase of 0.3 years from life expectancy in 2005. From 2005 to 2006, life expectancy at birth increased for all groups considered. It increased for males (from 74.9 to 75.1) and females (from 79.9 to 80.2), the white (from 77.9 to 78.2) and black populations (from 72.8 to 73.2), black males (from 69.3 to 69.7) and females (from 76.1 to 76.5), and white males (from 75.4 to 75.7) and females (from 80.4 to 80.6).},
	keywords={Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Child; Child, Preschool; Continental Population Groups/statistics & numerical data; Female; Humans; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Life Expectancy; Life Tables; Male; Middle Aged; Mortality/ethnology/trends; Survival Analysis; United States/epidemiology},
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@article{RefWorks:99,
	author={L. Ebony Boulware},
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	abstract={No abstract is available. To read the body of this article, please view the Full Text online.},
	isbn={0272-6386},
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@article{RefWorks:9,
	author={R. S. Braithwaite and M. S. Roberts and C. C. H. Chang and M. B. Goetz and C. L. Gibert and M. C. Rodriguez-Barradas and S. Shechter and A. Schaefer and K. Nucifora and R. Koppenhaver},
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	abstract={The use of modelling in economic evaluation is widespread, and it most often involves synthesising data from a number of sources. However, even when economic evaluations are conducted alongside clinical trials, some form of modelling is usually essential. The aim of this article is to review the handling of uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness results that are generated by the use of decision-analytic-type modelling. The modelling process is split into a number of stages: (i) a set of methods to be employed in a study are defined, which should include a 'reference case' of agreed methods to enhance the comparability of results; (ii) the clinical and demographic characteristics of the patients the model relates to should be specified as carefully as in any experimental study; and (iii) the data requirements of the model should be estimated using the principles of Bayesian statistics, such that prior distributions are specified for unknown model parameters. Monte Carlo simulation can then be employed to sample from these prior distributions to obtain a distribution of the cost effectiveness of the intervention. Such probabilistic analyses are related to parameter uncertainty. In addition, modelling uncertainty is likely to add a further layer of uncertainty to the results of particular analyses. },
	keywords={Cost-Benefit Analysis; Decision Support Techniques; Humans; Models, Economic; Probability},
	isbn={1170-7690; 1170-7690},
	language={eng}
}

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@article{Dember,
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	title={Early Fistula Failure: Back to Basics},
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	note={id: 1; LR: 20071114; GR: 1-K04-LM00082/LM/NLM NIH HHS/United States; GR: CA-31247/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States; GR: HS-03314/HS/AHRQ HHS/United States; JID: 8109073; ppublish },
	abstract={The data for medical decision analyses are often unreliable. Traditional sensitivity analysis--varying one or more probability or utility estimates from baseline values to see if the optimal strategy changes--is cumbersome if more than two values are allowed to vary concurrently. This paper describes a practical method for probabilistic sensitivity analysis, in which uncertainties in all values are considered simultaneously. The uncertainty in each probability and utility is assumed to possess a probability distribution. For ease of application we have used a parametric model that permits each distribution to be specified by two values: the baseline estimate and a bound (upper or lower) of the 95 percent confidence interval. Following multiple simulations of the decision tree in which each probability and utility is randomly assigned a value within its distribution, the following results are recorded: (a) the mean and standard deviation of the expected utility of each strategy; (b) the frequency with which each strategy is optimal; (c) the frequency with which each strategy "buys" or "costs" a specified amount of utility relative to the remaining strategies. As illustrated by an application to a previously published decision analysis, this technique is easy to use and can be a valuable addition to the armamentarium of the decision analyst. },
	keywords={Decision Making; Humans; Models, Biological; Monte Carlo Method; Operations Research; Probability Theory},
	isbn={0272-989X; 0272-989X},
	language={eng}
}

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@misc{RefWorks:23,
	author={Harold I. Feldman and Marshall Joffe and Sylvia E. Rosas and J. E. Burns and Jill Knauss and Kenneth Brayman},
	year={2003},
	month={11/01},
	title={Predictors of successful arteriovenous fistula maturation},
	journal={American Journal of Kidney Diseases : The Official Journal of the National Kidney Foundation},
	volume={42},
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	pages={1000-1012},
	note={id: 51; ID: S0272-6386(03)01014-X},
	keywords={Hemodialysis (HD); vascular access; arteriovenous fistula (AVF)},
	isbn={0272-6386}
}

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@article{RefWorks:30,
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	year={2010},
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	title={Active Surveillance Compared With Initial Treatment for Men With Low-Risk Prostate Cancer},
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	note={id: 113},
	abstract={Context In the United States, 192 000 men were diagnosed as having prostate cancer in 2009, the majority with low-risk, clinically localized disease. Treatment of these cancers is associated with substantial morbidity. Active surveillance is an alternative to initial treatment, but long-term outcomes and effect on quality of life have not been well characterized.Objective To examine the quality-of-life benefits and risks of active surveillance compared with initial treatment for men with low-risk, clinically localized prostate cancer.Design and Setting Decision analysis using a simulation model was performed: men were treated at diagnosis with brachytherapy, intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), or radical prostatectomy or followed up by active surveillance (a strategy of close monitoring of newly diagnosed patients with serial prostate-specific antigen measurements, digital rectal examinations, and biopsies, with treatment at disease progression or patient choice). Probabilities and utilities were derived from previous studies and literature review. In the base case, the relative risk of prostate cancerÃ¢â‚¬â€œspecific death for initial treatment vs active surveillance was assumed to be 0.83. Men incurred short- and long-term adverse effects of treatment.Patients Hypothetical cohorts of 65-year-old men newly diagnosed as having clinically localized, low-risk prostate cancer (prostate-specific antigen level }
}

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	journal={Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
	volume={17},
	number={3 suppl 1},
	pages={S16-S23},
	note={id: 110}
}

@article{KurellaFunc,
	author={M. Kurella Tamura and K. E. Covinsky and G. M. Chertow and K. Yaffe and C. S. Landefeld and C. E. McCulloch},
	year={2009},
	title={Functional status of elderly adults before and after initiation of dialysis},
	journal={New England Journal of Medicine},
	volume={361},
	number={16},
	pages={1539-1547},
	note={id: 142}
}

@article{KurellaSurv,
	author={M. Kurella and K. E. Covinsky and A. J. Collins and G. M. Chertow},
	year={2007},
	title={Octogenarians and nonagenarians starting dialysis in the United States},
	journal={Annals of Internal Medicine},
	volume={146},
	number={3},
	pages={177-183},
	note={id: 96}
}

@article{RefWorks:36,
	author={Eduardo Lacson Jr and J. Michael Lazarus and Jonathan Himmelfarb and T. Alp Ikizler and Raymond M. Hakim},
	year={2007},
	month={9},
	title={Balancing Fistula First With Catheters Last},
	journal={American Journal of Kidney Diseases},
	volume={50},
	number={3},
	pages={379-395},
	note={id: 53},
	keywords={Hemodialysis; vascular access; fistula; graft; catheter; peritoneal dialysis; commentary},
	isbn={0272-6386}
}

@book{RefWorks:37,
	author={A. M. Law},
	year={2007},
	title={Simulation Modeling and Analysis},
	publisher={McGraw-Hill},
	edition={4th},
	note={id: 103}
}

@article{RefWorks:39,
	author={C. E. Lok and M. Allon and L. Moist and M. J. Oliver and H. Shah and D. Zimmerman},
	year={2006},
	title={Risk equation determining unsuccessful cannulation events and failure to maturation in arteriovenous fistulas (REDUCE FTM I)},
	journal={Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
	volume={17},
	number={11},
	pages={3204-3212},
	note={id: 133}
}

@book{RefWorks:40,
	author={D. C. Montgomery and C. L. Jennings and M. Kulahci},
	year={2008},
	title={Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting},
	publisher={John Wiley & Sons}
}

@misc{RefWorks:41,
	author={National Institutes of Health},
	title={Chronic Kidney Disease and Kidney Failure},
	volume={2012},
	number={Aug 5},
	note={id: 38}
}

@misc{RefWorks:42,
	author={National Kidney & Urologic Diseases Information Clearinghouse (NKUDIC)},
	title={Kidney and Urologic Diseases Statistics for the United States},
	volume={2012},
	number={January 23},
	note={id: 39}
}

@article{RefWorks:45,
	author={J. Neter and W. Wasserman and M. H. Kutner},
	year={1985},
	title={Applied Linear Statistical Models, 2nd Edn (Homewood, IL, Richard D. Irwin)},
	note={id: 72}
}

@article{RefWorks:46,
	author={Ann O'Hare and Michael Allon and James S. Kaufman},
	year={2010},
	month={2010},
	title={Whether and when to refer patients for predialysis AV fistula creation: complex decision making in the face of uncertainty},
	journal={Seminars in dialysis},
	volume={23},
	number={5},
	pages={452-455},
	note={id: 71; Accession Number: 21039873. Language Code: eng. Date Created: 20101102. Date Completed: 20110303. Update Code: 20111122. Publication Type: Editorial. Journal ID: 8911629. Publication Model: Print. Cited Medium: Internet. NLM ISO Abbr: Semin Dial Linking ISSN: 08940959. Subset: IM. Date of Electronic Publication: 20100901; ID: 21039873},
	abstract={Ã‚Â© 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.},
	keywords={Arteriovenous Shunt, Surgical*; Decision Making*; Referral and Consultation*; Renal Replacement Therapy*; Kidney Diseases/*therapy; Catheterization, Central Venous; Humans; Practice Guidelines as Topic; Uncertainty},
	isbn={1525-139X},
	url={http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=mnh&AN=21039873&site=ehost-live}
}

@article{RefWorks:47,
	author={M. J. Oliver and R. R. Quinn and A. X. Garg and S. J. Kim and R. Wald and J. M. Paterson},
	year={2012},
	title={Likelihood of Starting Dialysis after Incident Fistula Creation},
	journal={Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
	note={id: 139}
}

@article{RefWorks:48,
	author={William F. Owen},
	year={2003},
	month={July 01},
	title={Patterns of Care for Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease in the United States: Dying for Improvement},
	journal={Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
	volume={14},
	number={suppl 2},
	pages={S76-S80},
	note={id: 58},
	abstract={ABSTRACT. The burden of chronic kidney disease can be assessed by multiple criteria that underscore the need for improved detection, treatment, and outcome monitoring. Several process measures for the care of advanced CKD patients are examined herein. Twenty seven and 11% of patients with CKD in National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) III had BP 15% of the prevalent patients are treated by peritoneal dialysis across the country. Despite survival and quality-of-life benefits with transplantation, most eligible recipients in the United States have not been placed on a transplant waiting list 6 mo after beginning dialysis. Last, }
}

@article{RefWorks:49,
	author={J. Perl and R. Wald and P. McFarlane and J. M. Bargman and E. Vonesh and Y. Na and S. V. Jassal and L. Moist},
	year={2011},
	title={Hemodialysis vascular access modifies the association between dialysis modality and survival},
	journal={Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
	volume={22},
	number={6},
	pages={1113-1121},
	note={id: 108}
}

@article{RefWorks:50,
	author={W. J. Peterson and J. Barker and M. Allon},
	year={2008},
	title={Disparities in fistula maturation persist despite preoperative vascular mapping},
	journal={Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
	volume={3},
	number={2},
	pages={437-441},
	note={id: 135}
}

@article{Radoui,
	author={A. Radoui and Z. Lyoussfi and I. Haddiya and Z. Skalli and R. El Idrissi and H. Rhou and F. Ezzaitouni and N. Ouzeddoun and A. El Mesnaoui and R. Bayahia and L. Benamar},
	year={2011},
	month={Jul},
	title={Survival of the first arteriovenous fistula in 96 patients on chronic hemodialysis},
	journal={Annals of Vascular Surgery},
	volume={25},
	number={5},
	pages={630-633},
	note={id: 117; CI: Copyright (c) 2011; JID: 8703941; 2010/06/09 [received]; 2010/08/04 [revised]; 2010/08/25 [accepted]; ppublish},
	abstract={BACKGROUND: Native arteriovenous fistula (AVF) represents the best vascular approach for chronic hemodialysis. The aim of this study was to determine the survival of the first AVF and to identify the factors responsible for poor AVF survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on 96 chronic hemodialysis patients benefiting from the creation and cannulation of their first AVF at our center, with a minimum follow-up period of 1 year. We collected demographic, clinical, and biological data, as well as analyzed the following AVF characteristics: anatomic site, cannulation time, survival, and complications. To identify the predictive factors of poor AVF survival, we defined and compared two groups of patients on the basis of whether they lost their first AVF during the evolution. RESULTS: Patients' mean age was 42.1 +/- 13 years, with predominantly female patients. Mean AVF cannulation time was 17.5 +/- 24 days. AVF loss was mainly related to thrombosis in 29% of the cases and stenosis in 9.4%. AVF survival was 87%, 77%, 71%, 67%, and 64% after 1, 3, 5, 8, and 10 years of hemodialysis, respectively. In our study, the main factors associated with AVF loss were lengthy jugular venous catheters placement (p = 0.004), short AVF cannulation time after its creation (p = 0.03), and hypotension episodes during dialysis (p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Long-term survival and quality of life in hemodialysis depend on an appropriate dialysis carried out-thanks to a correct vascular approach! According to the previously published data, survival of the first AVF can vary between 10% and 36% at 10 years. In our study, survival of the first native AVF was satisfying because it reached 64% at 10 years. Early AVF creation and prevention and management of its complications remain the safest and most comfortable solution to ensure AVF survival and thus a satisfying survival and quality of life in chronic hemodialysis patients.},
	keywords={Adult; Arteriovenous Shunt, Surgical/adverse effects; Chi-Square Distribution; Chronic Disease; Constriction, Pathologic; Female; Graft Occlusion, Vascular/etiology; Humans; Kidney Diseases/therapy; Male; Middle Aged; Morocco; Renal Dialysis; Retrospective Studies; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Thrombosis/etiology; Time Factors; Treatment Outcome; Vascular Patency},
	isbn={1615-5947; 0890-5096},
	language={eng}
}

@article{RefWorks:90,
	author={P. Ravani and S. C. Palmer and M. J. Oliver and R. R. Quinn and J. M. Macrae and D. J. Tai and N. I. Pannu and C. Thomas and B. R. Hemmelgarn and J. C. Craig and B. Manns and M. Tonelli and G. F. Strippoli and M. T. James},
	year={2013},
	month={Feb},
	title={Associations between Hemodialysis Access Type and Clinical Outcomes: A Systematic Review },
	journal={Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN},
	volume={24},
	number={3},
	pages={465-473},
	note={id: 1; JID: 9013836; OID: NLM: PMC3582202; PMCR: 2014/02/28 00:00; 2013/02/21 [aheadofprint]; ppublish },
	abstract={Clinical practice guidelines recommend an arteriovenous fistula as the preferred vascular access for hemodialysis, but quantitative associations between vascular access type and various clinical outcomes remain controversial. We performed a systematic review of cohort studies to evaluate the associations between type of vascular access (arteriovenous fistula, arteriovenous graft, and central venous catheter) and risk for death, infection, and major cardiovascular events. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and article reference lists and extracted data describing study design, participants, vascular access type, clinical outcomes, and risk for bias. We identified 3965 citations, of which 67 (62 cohort studies comprising 586,337 participants) met our inclusion criteria. In a random effects meta-analysis, compared with persons with fistulas, those individuals using catheters had higher risks for all-cause mortality (risk ratio=1.53, 95% CI=1.41-1.67), fatal infections (2.12, 1.79-2.52), and cardiovascular events (1.38, 1.24-1.54). Similarly, compared with persons with grafts, those individuals using catheters had higher risks for mortality (1.38, 1.25-1.52), fatal infections (1.49, 1.15-1.93), and cardiovascular events (1.26, 1.11-1.43). Compared with persons with fistulas, those individuals with grafts had increased all-cause mortality (1.18, 1.09-1.27) and fatal infection (1.36, 1.17-1.58), but we did not detect a difference in the risk for cardiovascular events (1.07, 0.95-1.21). The risk for bias, especially selection bias, was high. In conclusion, persons using catheters for hemodialysis seem to have the highest risks for death, infections, and cardiovascular events compared with other vascular access types, and patients with usable fistulas have the lowest risk. },
	isbn={1533-3450; 1046-6673},
	language={eng}
}

@article{RefWorks:52,
	author={H. C. Rayner and R. L. Pisoni and B. W. Gillespie and D. A. Goodkin and T. Akiba and T. Akizawa and A. Saito and E. W. Young and F. K. Port},
	year={2003},
	title={Creation, cannulation and survival of arteriovenous fistulae: data from the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns study},
	journal={Kidney international},
	volume={63},
	number={1},
	pages={323-330},
	note={id: 128}
}

@article{RefWorks:53,
	author={Hugh C. Rayner and Ronald L. Pisoni and Brenda W. Gillespie and David A. Goodkin and Takashi Akiba and Tadao Akizawa and Akira Saito and Eric W. Young and Friedrich K. Port},
	year={2003},
	month={print},
	title={Creation, cannulation and survival of arteriovenous fistulae: data from the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study},
	journal={Kidney international},
	volume={63},
	number={1},
	pages={323-330},
	note={id: 50},
	isbn={0085-2538},
	url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1755.2003.00724.x}
}

@article{Rosas,
	author={Sylvia E. Rosas and Harold I. Feldman},
	year={2012},
	month={jan},
	title={Synthetic vascular hemodialysis access versus native arteriovenous fistula: a cost-utility analysis},
	journal={Annals of Surgery},
	volume={255},
	number={1},
	pages={181-186}
}

@book{RefWorks:54,
	author={P. J. Rousseeuw and A. M. Leroy},
	year={2003},
	title={Robust regression and outlier detection},
	publisher={Wiley-IEEE},
	pages={329},
	note={id: 86}
}

@article{Roy,
	author={P. Roy-Chaudhury and V. P. Sukhatme and A. K. Cheung},
	year={2006},
	title={Hemodialysis vascular access dysfunction: a cellular and molecular viewpoint},
	journal={Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
	volume={17},
	number={4},
	pages={1112-1127},
	note={id: 116}
}

@article{RefWorks:56,
	author={C. A. Schinstock and R. C. Albright and A. W. Williams and J. J. Dillon and E. J. Bergstralh and B. M. Jenson and J. T. McCarthy and K. A. Nath},
	year={2011},
	title={Outcomes of arteriovenous fistula creation after the fistula first initiative},
	journal={Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
	volume={6},
	number={8},
	pages={1996-2002},
	note={id: 137}
}

@article{RefWorks:57,
	author={S. Schwab and A. Besarab and G. Beathard and D. Brouwer and E. Etheredge and M. Hartigan and M. Levine and R. McCann and R. Sherman and S. Trerotola},
	year={1997},
	title={NKF-DOQI clinical practice guidelines for vascular access},
	journal={Am J Kidney Dis},
	volume={30},
	number={suppl 3},
	pages={150-191},
	note={id: 109}
}

@article{RefWorks:58,
	author={S. M. Shechter and M. D. Bailey and A. J. Schaefer and M. S. Roberts},
	year={2008},
	title={The optimal time to initiate HIV therapy under ordered health states},
	journal={Operations Research},
	volume={56},
	number={1},
	pages={20},
	note={id: 104}
}

@article{RefWorks:59,
	author={T. J. Vachharajani and S. Moossavi and J. R. Jordan and V. Vachharajani and B. I. Freedman and J. M. Burkart},
	year={2011},
	title={Re-evaluating the fistula first initiative in octogenarians on hemodialysis},
	journal={Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
	volume={6},
	number={7},
	pages={1663-1667},
	note={id: 140}
}

@article{RefWorks:60,
	author={W. Wang and B. Murphy and S. Yilmaz and M. Tonelli and J. MacRae and B. J. Manns},
	year={2008},
	title={Comorbidities do not influence primary fistula success in incident hemodialysis patients: a prospective study},
	journal={Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
	volume={3},
	number={1},
	pages={78-84},
	note={id: 136}
}

@article{Wasse,
	author={H. Wasse and N. Kutner and R. Zhang and Y. Huang},
	year={2007},
	title={Association of initial hemodialysis vascular access with patient-reported health status and quality of life},
	journal={Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
	volume={2},
	number={4},
	pages={708-714},
	note={id: 68}
}

@article{RefWorks:62,
	author={K. I. Woroniecka and A. S. D. Park and D. Mohtat and D. B. Thomas and J. M. Pullman and K. Susztak},
	year={2011},
	title={Transcriptome analysis of human diabetic kidney disease},
	journal={Diabetes},
	volume={60},
	number={9},
	pages={2354-2369},
	note={id: 122}
}

@article{Xue,
	author={H. Xue and E. Lacson Jr and W. Wang and G. C. Curhan and S. M. Brunelli},
	year={2010},
	title={Choice of vascular access among incident hemodialysis patients: a decision and cost-utility analysis},
	journal={Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
	volume={5},
	number={12},
	pages={2289-2296},
	note={id: 143}
}


@article{KurellaOpt,
	title = {Optimizing renal replacement therapy in older adults: a framework for making individualized decisions},
	volume = {82},
	issn = {1523-1755},
	shorttitle = {Optimizing renal replacement therapy in older adults},
	doi = {10.1038/ki.2011.384},
	abstract = {It is often difficult to synthesize information about the risks and benefits of recommended management strategies in older patients with end-stage renal disease since they may have more comorbidity and lower life expectancy than patients described in clinical trials or practice guidelines. In this review, we outline a framework for individualizing end-stage renal disease management decisions in older patients. The framework considers three factors: life expectancy, the risks and benefits of competing treatment strategies, and patient preferences. We illustrate the use of this framework by applying it to three key end-stage renal disease decisions in older patients with varying life expectancy: choice of dialysis modality, choice of vascular access for hemodialysis, and referral for kidney transplantation. In several instances, this approach might provide support for treatment decisions that directly contradict available practice guidelines, illustrating circumstances when strict application of guidelines may be inappropriate for certain patients. By combining quantitative estimates of benefits and harms with qualitative assessments of patient preferences, clinicians may be better able to tailor treatment recommendations to individual older patients, thereby improving the overall quality of end-stage renal disease care.},
	language = {eng},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Kidney Int.},
	author = {Tamura, Manjula Kurella and Tan, Jane C and {O'Hare}, Ann M},
	month = aug,
	year = {2012},
	note = {{PMID:} 22089945},
	keywords = {Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Arteriovenous Shunt, Surgical, Catheterization, Central Venous, Decision Making, Humans, Individualized Medicine, Kidney Failure, Chronic, Kidney Transplantation, Life Expectancy, Patient Preference, Peritoneal Dialysis, Renal Dialysis, Renal Replacement Therapy, Risk Assessment},
	pages = {261--269}
}
@article{Astor,
  title={Type of vascular access and survival among incident hemodialysis patients: the Choices for Healthy Outcomes in Caring for ESRD (CHOICE) Study},
  author={Astor, Brad C and Eustace, Joseph A and Powe, Neil R and Klag, Michael J and Fink, Nancy E and Coresh, Josef and others},
  journal={Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
  volume={16},
  number={5},
  pages={1449--1455},
  year={2005},
  publisher={Am Soc Nephrol}
}
@article{CARVALHO,
  title={Survival of hemodialysis patients: modeling differences in risk of dialysis centers},
  author={Carvalho, Marilia S{\'a} and Henderson, Robin and Shimakura, Silvia and SOUSA, IN{\^E}S PEREIRA SILVA CUNHA},
  journal={International Journal for Quality in Health Care},
  volume={15},
  number={3},
  pages={189--196},
  year={2003},
  publisher={ISQHC}
}

@article{Peterson,
  title={Disparities in fistula maturation persist despite preoperative vascular mapping},
  author={Peterson, William J and Barker, Jill and Allon, Michael},
  journal={Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
  volume={3},
  number={2},
  pages={437--441},
  year={2008},
  publisher={Am Soc Nephrol}
}
@inproceedings{Levin,
  title={A challenge for nephrologists—increasing fistula maturation rates, reducing fistula maturation time, and decreasing dialysis catheter prevalence in the United States},
  author={Levine, Michael I},
  booktitle={Seminars in Dialysis},
  volume={21},
  number={3},
  pages={280--284},
  year={2008},
  organization={Wiley Online Library}
}
@article{Lok,
  title={Fistula first initiative: advantages and pitfalls},
  author={Lok, Charmaine E},
  journal={Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
  volume={2},
  number={5},
  pages={1043--1053},
  year={2007},
  publisher={Am Soc Nephrol}
}
@article{Xi,
  title={Who should be referred for a fistula? A survey of nephrologists},
  author={Xi, Wang and MacNab, Jennifer and Lok, Charmaine E and Lee, Timmy C and Maya, Ivan D and Mokrzycki, Michele H and Moist, Louise M},
  journal={Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation},
  volume={25},
  number={8},
  pages={2644--2651},
  year={2010},
  publisher={ERA-EDTA}
}
@article{Vac,
  title={Re-evaluating the fistula first initiative in octogenarians on hemodialysis},
  author={Vachharajani, Tushar J and Moossavi, Shahriar and Jordan, Jean R and Vachharajani, Vidula and Freedman, Barry I and Burkart, John M},
  journal={Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology},
  volume={6},
  number={7},
  pages={1663--1667},
  year={2011},
  publisher={Am Soc Nephrol}
}
@inproceedings{Vassalotti,
  title={Fistula First Breakthrough Initiative: Targeting Catheter Last in Fistula First},
  author={Vassalotti, Joseph A and Jennings, William C and Beathard, Gerald A and Neumann, Marianne and Caponi, Susan and Fox, Chester H and Spergel, Lawrence M},
  booktitle={Seminars in Dialysis},
  volume={25},
  number={3},
  pages={303--310},
  year={2012},
  organization={Wiley Online Library}
}
@article{Kinney,
  title={2005 Annual Report: ESRD Clinical Performance Measures Project},
  author={Kinney, Raynel},
  journal={American Journal of Kidney Diseases},
  volume={48},
  pages={S1--S105},
  year={2006},
  publisher={Elsevier}
}


@misc{IM,
	title = {Insuring America's Health: Principles and Recommendations - Institute of Medicine},
	author="Institute of Medicine.,g",
	year = {2004},
	url = {http://www.iom.edu/Reports/2004/Insuring-Americas-Health-Principles-and-Recommendations.aspx},
}

@article{Lopez,
  title={Factors associated with health-related quality of life among hemodialysis patients in the DOPPS},
  author={Lopes, Antonio Alberto and Bragg-Gresham, Jennifer L and Goodkin, David A and Fukuhara, Shunichi and Mapes, Donna L and Young, Eric W and Gillespie, Brenda W and Akizawa, Tadao and Greenwood, Roger N and Andreucci, Vittorio E and others},
  journal={Quality of Life Research},
  volume={16},
  number={4},
  pages={545--557},
  year={2007},
  publisher={Springer}
}
@article{Danes,
  title={Catheter use is high even among hemodialysis patients with a fistula or graft},
  author={Danese, MD and Liu, Z and Griffiths, RI and Dylan, M and Yu, HT and Dubois, R and Nissenson, AR},
  journal={Kidney international},
  volume={70},
  number={8},
  pages={1482--1485},
  year={2006},
  publisher={Nature Publishing Group}
}
@article{economic,
  title={Methods for the economic evaluation of health care programmes},
  author={Adamiak, Grazyna},
  journal={Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health},
  volume={60},
  number={9},
  pages={822--823},
  year={2006},
  publisher={BMJ Publishing Group Ltd}
}

@article{hazards,
  title={The “hazards” of extrapolating survival curves},
  author={Davies, Charlotte and Briggs, Andrew and Lorgelly, Paula and Garellick, G{\"o}ran and Malchau, Henrik},
  journal={Medical Decision Making},
  volume={33},
  number={3},
  pages={369--380},
  year={2013},
  publisher={SAGE Publications}
}
@article{EditExtrap,
  title={Extrapolation of Survival Data in Cost-effectiveness Analyses Improving the Current State of Play},
  author={Grieve, Richard and Hawkins, Neil and Pennington, Mark},
  journal={Medical Decision Making},
  volume={33},
  number={6},
  pages={740--742},
  year={2013},
  publisher={SAGE Publications}
}
@article{MainExtrap,
  title={Survival Analysis for Economic Evaluations Alongside Clinical Trials—Extrapolation with Patient-Level Data Inconsistencies, Limitations, and a Practical Guide},
  author={Latimer, Nicholas R},
  journal={Medical Decision Making},
  year={2013},
  publisher={SAGE Publications}
}


@misc{NICE,
	title = {Guide to the methods of technology appraisal, third edition draft for consultation},
	author={NICE},
	year = {2013},
	url = {http://publications.nice.org.uk/guide-to-the-methods-of-technology-appraisal-2013-pmg9/the-reference-case},
}